An alleged iPhone 4S packaging label adds adds further confusion to the iPhone 5‘s existence and possible launch next week, and could indicate that Apple will only be releasing an incremental hardware update to the existing iPhone 4, rather than an all new redesign.

The label, shown above, was discovered by 9to5mac after being posted to an unspecified Chinese forum. Though initially discounted, one of their most reliable sources said the model number on the label made sense:

The model number from the label is MD239 (a 16GB unit), while the model number for the “better” (likely 32GB unit) is MD234. According to Mr. X, this sequence is sensible, but could just be a coincidence. If legitimate, the next-generation iPhone will be marketed as the iPhone 4S

9to5Mac goes further and says the next generation iPhone is in Apple’s inventory systems now, although they point out that the ‘iPhone 4S’ name shouldn’t be considered confirmed.

This is the second piece of recent evidence to suggest the iPhone 4S exists, at least in name, the first showing up last week in the form of a ’4S’ labeled Otterbox case.

Outside of case designs, analyst reports, and a variety of imaginative 3rd party mockups, there has been no evidence that a redesigned iPhone 5 exists, although Apple is notoriously secretive with unreleased products.

Apple has confirmed the expected October 4th iPhone media event by sending out invites to a small group of press. The image above, sent to AllThingsD, ThisIsMyNext, SlashGear, and LoopInsight shows the invite to a 10:00AM PST event on their Cupertino campus, which only says “Let’s talk iPhone.”

There is increasing evidence that the release date of iPhone 5 will be a week after the event on Friday, October 14th, despite nobody knowing what the iPhone 5 will look like, or whether Apple will only release an “iPhone 4S” hardware update. Stay tuned.

Two vastly different analyst reports do a great job of indicating the immense confusion surrounding the next-gen iPhone launch, which is due next week on October 4th. While some analysts are continuing to predict an all new redesigned iPhone 5 released alongside a low-end iPhone 4S, other reports suggest only one new iPhone is going to be pushed out by Apple this year, and that it’s just an incremental hardware update to the iPhone 4.

iPhone 5 is Aluminum Unibody, iPhone 4S is iPod touch Replacement

The first report from Deutsch Bank, as relayed to AppleInsider, suggests that iPhone 5 is expected to be a “completely redesigned handset” featuring “an aluminum unibody construction to replace the current glass back of the iPhone 4″ and that it will have a slightly larger screen.

Additionally, Deutsche Banks Chris Whitmore suspects that the so called iPhone 4S is basically an iPod touch replacement, providing a cheaper high margin device that Apple can aim at emerging markets.

The anticipated iPhone 4S is viewed as essentially an 8GB iPod touch with an added cellular antenna

The idea of two phones released simultaneously, one of which will replace the iPod touch, is an appealing theory, but there are other reports that indicate that’s not what is happening.

iPhone 5 Looks Like iPhone 4, No iPhone 4S

Meanwhile, an apparent confirmation from the frequently reliable All Things Digital branch of the Wall Street Journal suggests that a dramatically redesigned iPhone is not going to be released this year. Furthermore, they seem to agree with the idea that Apple is not going to release two different iPhone models at all, throwing water on the dual iPhone 4S and iPhone 5 theories.

Citing a report that circulated last week from yet another analyst, AllThingsD seems to confirm two main points about iPhone 5: that Apple will release only one new iPhone this year, and that the device will look practically identical to the existing iPhone 4:

[According to Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair] Apple’s fifth-generation iPhone will be an incremental update to the current iPhone 4, not a major redesign.

This is followed by specific quotes from analyst Brian Blair that seem to discredit the dual-release iPhone 4S & 5 rumors:

“We don’t expect a second, dramatically different iPhone to accompany this as we don’t think Apple needs to have 3 models in the market to address the high end, mid-tier and low end since the iPhone 4 (with memory lowered to 8 GB) will drop to $99 and effectively attack those markets.”

“Why would Apple bump up only the processor specs of the iPhone 4 in addition to a newly designed iPhone 5 if the goal is to sell it into the pre-paid market at a lower cost,” Blair asks. “A 4S would simply cost more and a 4S itself wouldn’t create a mid-tier market unless it was priced at $99 and the iPhone 4 went to $49 with the new iPhone at $199. We see this scenario as unlikely.”

AllThingsD John Paczkowski responds to this simply with “Agreed”.

In terms of hardware specs, other than the “[possibility of] a larger screen”, the report echos what has long been expected by the rumor mill: A5 CPU borrowed from the iPad 2, 1GB RAM, 8MP camera, and a ‘worldphone’ baseband that brings GSM and CDMA compatibility onto a single chip.

iPhone 5 Specific iOS 5 Features a Big Selling Point?

Finally, Mark Gurman of 9to5mac provides information about an next-gen-iPhone-only iOS 5 feature called “Assistant” that will be “the new device’s biggest selling point”, which lets you speak commands to the iPhone through an intelligent voice command system. 9to5mac has a detailed summary of the Assistant feature that is well worth a read, and their report also reaffirms the aforementioned hardware specs from other rumors.

The most glaringly obvious aspect to all these reports is that nobody knows exactly what’s coming out of Cupertino next week from Apple. About the only thing anyone can agree on is the devices availability, where a mid-month release date looks like October 14, if for no other reason that it being in the middle of the month, with iOS 5 coming slightly earlier.

A new report says that Apple is blacking out selected vacation days during the second week of October, strongly indicating that iOS 5, iCloud, and iPhone 5 are expected to be released that week. Specifically, AppleInsider learned that Apple “has in some locations blacked out vacation time for employees from October 9th through 12th and October 14th through 15th“.

More Evidence for an iPhone 5 Release on October 14 or 15
The October 15th date is particularly relevant because several weeks ago, French Telecom CEO Stephane Richard stated that the iPhone 5 would be “out October 15th”. Due to timezone differences, if the EU and US had corresponding release schedules, October 14 could also be the release date in the USA, which may explain why those dates are blacked out from the employees vacation calendar.

Building Evidence for an iOS 5 Release on October 10
Breaking down the blacked out dates of October 9th to 12th, AppleInsider cites three additional pieces of evidence that strongly suggest iOS 5 and iCloud will be made available on those dates:

• AppleCare is expecting an increase in iOS related call volume on Monday, October 10th
• Apple’s past release history shows an iOS update released several days prior to a new hardware launch
• A corresponding Twitter developer event with specific focus on iOS 5 is scheduled between Oct 10 and Oct 12

Similarly, a tipster with a fairly accurate track record, including the specific OS X Lion release date, suggested to OSXDaily via Twitter that Monday October 10th would be a date that some new Apple product or software will become publicly available. Separately, OSXDaily has learned that Apple has been ramping up hiring in their Austin, Texas call center over the past month to prepare for an increase in iCloud and iOS related inquiries.

Apple has only said that iOS 5 would be released in the “Fall” of this year. While all of these specific dates remain officially unconfirmed and speculative, it’s widely accepted that the iPhone 5 will be announced on October 4th at an event led by CEO Tim Cook on Apple’s home campus, One Infinite Loop.

Apple intends to host the October 4th media event on their own campus in Cupertino, California, according to a new report from WSJ’s AllThingsD. The event is expected to be headlined by the iPhone 5 (or iPhone 4S), in addition to introducing the next iPod touch, iOS 5, iCloud, and Mac OS X 10.7.2 update.

This is a break from Apple’s tradition of hosting a larger event at San Francisco’s Yerba Buena Center. Although AllThingsD isn’t sure as to why the events location is different, they propose a few theories:

Perhaps the release date was too much of a moving target to risk booking a large space like Yerba Buena Center for the Arts (YBCA), which has hosted a number of big product unveils in the past. Perhaps, the company felt a more intimate venue was best for newly installed CEO Tim Cook’s first media event. Perhaps YBCA was simply already booked. Whatever the reason, the world will get it’s first look at the next iPhone at Apple’s Town Hall Auditorium in early October.

The other side to not booking the YBCA is that it has kept the event date hidden from the public, something that was relatively easy to guess due to the public accessibility of the Yerba Buena Centers event calendar. If it wasn’t for AllThingsD’s sources inside Apple, the October 4th launch date would still be unknown.

Few details on any new hardware have surfaced, and there is an ongoing debate as to whether a true iPhone 5 will be revealed or if the iPhone 4S will be the next-gen iPhone. While there is plenty of speculation in the tech world as to the specifics of the next phone, it’s important to remember that Apple goes to incredible lengths to keep products secret, as demonstrated by the immense security precautions surrounding the iPad when it was in testing prior to public launch.

At least one of the devices to be launched by Apple on October 4th looks to be named ‘iPhone 4S’ after all. The proof comes in the form of several pictures of an Otterbox case, clearly showing the iPhone 4S monicker printed on the packaging, which were discovered and posted to Twitter by jailbreaker @chronic.

Perhaps more interesting is that the volume buttons appear to have switched places to the right side of the iPhone, matching the iPad, which is seen clearly in this picture:

Moving the volume button to the right side is compelling because:

• It gives credence to several iPhone 5 cases which show the volume buttons on the right side
• This breaks from the long established norm of existing iPhone and iPod touches

Chronic suggested the move is simply related to the volume button shutter features in iOS 5, but it’s also likely that Apple intends s to make all iOS devices consistent with their button locations.

The iPhone 5 will be announced on Tuesday, October 4, at an event led by Apple CEO Tim Cook. This apparent confirmation of a launch date comes from the usually very reliable AllThingsD, a branch of the Wall Street Journal, who has long been saying that the iPhone 5 will be unveiled sometime in October.

While the announcement will come in the first week of October, unless Apple’s plans change, the actual availability of the highly anticipated iPhone 5 will be another week or two later:

While Apple could certainly change its plans anytime, sources said that the Oct. 4 date has been selected by the company to showcase the iPhone 5. Sources added that the plan is now to make the new device available for purchase within a few weeks after the announcement.

There is no word on pre-orders, but “within a few weeks” would correspond with the October 15th availability date that France Telecom CEO recently spilled.

AllThingsD also suggests that while Tim Cook will lead the event, other Apple executives will likely make appearances to discuss specifics about the device and other products being announced. One could safely assume that the October 4th event will also be the iOS 5 public release, in addition to iCloud’s official launch and a first look at whatever the revised iPod lineup will be.

Who better to spill the potential launch date of iPhone 5 than an executive of a leading telecom company? That’s exactly what Stéphane Richard, CEO of France Telecom, seems to have done at a conference in France today, with the following:

“If I believe what we heard, the iPhone 5 [is] out Oct. 15,”

Assuming a corresponding US launch, the US release date may be October 14. This little quote comes from Mac4ver, where it was presumably overheard by whatever crowd was attending the BFM Business conference.

October 15 (or 14) corresponds well with past reports of a mid-October release, but it is also possible the France Telecom CEO is only repeating speculation from news agencies.

Apple typically releases new software prior to the launch of new iOS hardware, so the above date corresponds well with some separate information regarding iOS 5.

iOS 5 & iCloud to Arrive on October 10?

Separately, AppleInsider has learned that AppleCare specialists are anticipating a significant increase in call volume related to iOS, possibly in anticipation of iCloud and iOS. This corresponds with a tip we received earlier in the month that Apple has been ramping up hiring at call centers for iCloud and iOS specialists.

Apple has only mentioned ‘Fall’ as a vague iOS 5 release date, but new information points to a GM build arriving at the end of the month for a launch early in October.

iPhone 5 may be available in both black and white colors, and be offered at the same 16GB and 32GB capacities as iPhone 4, if a product listing on UK’s Vodafone is to be believed. AppleInsider discovered the product page for a signal booster which makes direct references to four distinct models; “iPhone 5 32GB White”, “iPhone 5 16GB White”, “iPhone 5 32GB Black”, and “iPhone 5 16GB Black”.

It could be presumptive or simply a typo, but the iPhone 5 language has since been removed from the listing, which also references current iPhone 4, 3GS, and 3G models. It would not be surprising for both black and white iPhone 5′s to be available from the get-go, but many rumors have anticipated, or hoped for, a 64GB iPhone model, the necessity of which may be questionable thanks to iCloud.

The next-gen iPhone is expected to be released in October.

Sprint will be the USA’s only cell provider to offer unlimited data plans with the upcoming iPhone 5. This latest news come from Bloomberg, who also confirms the mid-October release date:

Sprint, the third-largest U.S. wireless carrier, plans to begin selling the device in mid-October under a deal with Apple for the next model, the iPhone 5, said the people, who wouldn’t be identified because the plans aren’t public. Becoming the country’s only operator to offer the device with unlimited data service for a flat fee may help Sprint draw customers from AT&T and Verizon Wireless, which already carry the phone, they said.

Pricing for the iPhone 5 unlimited data plans remains to be seen, but Sprint currently offers three different unlimited data packages ranging from $69.99/mo for unlimited data and messaging but 450 minutes, up to $99.99 per month for unlimited everything – data, SMS, and minutes. If Sprint was to maintain these price points for iPhone customers, they would be the most competitively priced iPhone plans offered to US customers.

On the other side of the data situation is Verizon and AT&T, who have long canceled unlimited data plans and are instead raising rates while reducing data limits, leaving only those grandfathered into the unlimited data plans to still have access to them. Sprint offering unlimited data and cheaper plans could very well draw a significant amount of users to their network.

Rumors also persist that pre-orders for iPhone 5 will become available prior to the official release next month, alongside iOS 5, iCloud, and the cheaper iPhone 4S.